As a forecaster in a previous job, we were told to always expect to be wrong. The key was to be wrong in anticipated ways. And sensitivity analyses were the way to ensure that. A good forecaster should have the famous “tornado plot” ready and being able to connect a range of outcomes to the most sensitive assumptions is what revealed insights!
In this case, knowing the sectors affected by weather and political events is very helpful.
As a forecaster in a previous job, we were told to always expect to be wrong. The key was to be wrong in anticipated ways. And sensitivity analyses were the way to ensure that. A good forecaster should have the famous “tornado plot” ready and being able to connect a range of outcomes to the most sensitive assumptions is what revealed insights!
In this case, knowing the sectors affected by weather and political events is very helpful.