Learning This Week: Growth in Medicines
Every week I learn something interesting about a topic.
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Biotech
The key growth area for medicines in the next five years is biotech, which will represent 35% of global spending and will include many of the areas of greatest activity for novel medicines. Global biotech spending is set to exceed $890Bn by 2028, with growth slowing to 9.5–12.5% due to the impact of biosimilars.
Specialty Medicines
Specialty medicines, also known as specialty drugs, are a category of high-cost prescription medications specifically designed to treat complex, chronic, or rare medical conditions. These will represent 43% of global spending in 2028 and more than 55% of total spending in developed markets, continuing the shift from more traditional medicines underway for over a decade.
Key Therapy Areas - Oncology & Immunology
The two leading global therapy areas — oncology and immunology — are forecast to grow 14–17% and 2–5% CAGR, respectively, through 2028, reflecting diverging trends with one still driven by novel medicines and the other facing biosimilar competition. Oncology is projected to add 100 new treatments over five years, contributing to an increase in spending of $224Bn to a total of more than $440Bn in 2028 and facing limiting new losses of exclusivity.
Treatments for auto-immune disorders are forecast to reach $192Bn globally by 2028, driven by steadily increasing numbers of treated patients and new products, and offset after 2023 due to biosimilars.
Diabetes - Declining Spends
Diabetes spending growth is slowing to low single digits in most developed markets and declining in some, especially net of rebates. New therapies contribute to growth of neurology markets, including greater use of novel migraine therapies, potential treatments for rare diseases, and the potential for therapies for Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. The outlook for next generation biotherapeutics includes significantly uncertain clinical and commercial prospects for cell, gene, and RNA therapies, which will grow to $33Bn by 2028.
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