Curiosity@Intelsense
Weekly dose of learning
1.
AI is improving fast (and learning to lie!)
The Good:
Notch up another win for artificial intelligence. Researchers have used AI to predict the notes that waft off whisky and determine whether a dram was made in the US or Scotland.
The work is a step towards automated systems that can predict the complex aroma of whisky from its molecular makeup.
Nailing down a whisky’s aroma is no simple business. Most of the strongest notes in the spirit are a complex mixture of chemicals that interact in the nose and even mask one another to create a particular aromatic impression. The interactions make it extremely difficult to predict how the whisky will smell from its chemical signature.
For the latest work, researchers obtained the chemical makeup of 16 US whiskeys and Scottish whiskies, including Jack Daniel’s, Maker’s Mark, Laphroaig and Talisker, and details of their aromas from an 11-strong expert panel. The information was used to train AI algorithms to predict the five major aromas and the origin of the drinks from their molecular constituents.
The Bad:
For years, computer scientists have worried that advanced artificial intelligence might be difficult to control. A smart enough AI might pretend to comply with the constraints placed upon it by its human creators, only to reveal its dangerous capabilities at a later point.
Researchers found evidence that suggests the capacity of AIs to deceive their human creators increases as they become more powerful. This would mean the more advanced an AI, the less confident computer scientists can be that their alignment techniques are effective. The paper adds to a small but growing body of evidence that today’s most advanced AI models are becoming capable of strategic deception (i.e. lying).
2.
Never play the blame game
You will sell winners too soon. You will hold losers too long. You will buy stocks you shouldn’t. Just don’t blame others. When you blame others, it proves you didn't do the work you were supposed to do. Fully own your investment mistakes so you learn, grow, and move forward.
When you are a sea captain you don’t blame the tides and the weather. When you are a stock picker you don’t blame market conditions or macro forces. Bull markets, bear markets, recessions, interest rates, inflation, presidential elections, wars – they are all part of the journey. It’s your job to pick stocks and navigate through any environment.
Never blame market conditions for underperformance. We are all dealing with the same circumstances. Losers take the credit in the good times and then blame the market in the bad times. Winners take responsibility regardless of the outcome.
Pic of the Week
Thought of the Week
“Not everybody believes in God, not everybody believes in human rights, not everybody believes in nationalism, but everybody believes in money.” — Yuval Harari
Video of the Week
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