Since we are in December and counting down to the end of the year, I thought I would compile a few books I enjoyed reading.
1.
Trading (Investing) is really tough
It’s not hard when things are going well. It’s not hard when you are making money. I don’t think people are “right” or “wrong” in the markets—I think that your view is either “in favor” or “out of favor.” Given enough time and capital, your view will eventually come back into favor. But during the period of time that it is out of favor, you are experiencing stress. Trading is full of stress. During the time that I was a trader at Lehman Brothers, I was basically operating in a perpetual state of fear. A lot of people think that the markets oscillate between fear and greed—not really. Greed is just another form of fear, the fear of missing out, the fear that you’re not going to make as much money as someone else.
2.
India is the mirror image of China
Finally, geopolitics. Vietnam is still a winner. And so is India as it presents a positive mirror image of China's debt, demographic and deflation woes. Corporates have deleveraged with a debt ratio of 54% of GDP (78% in 2012) versus China's 165%. With its inclusion in the JPM Bond Index, bond flows will rise. Indian households will also open their wallets & invest in the rise of the investment cycle in the country as they rotate out of deposits and gold into pensions and mutual funds.
We are structurally bullish on India, which we think is only at the cusp of its investment bull run that will be beyond 2024 & whoever wins the general elections (Modi is a shoe-in).
3.
Persistence is important for success
Success is like trying to enter an exclusive nightclub.
There is the front door for the 99% of people waiting in line, doing what everyone else is, and hoping to eventually get in.
There is the VIP door for the 1% in the privileged and connected who can effortlessly slip through.
What they don’t tell you is that there is always a third door. This is through a back alley kitchen or a cracked window that will take resourcefulness to discover and guts to pound on 100x.
Thought of the Week
“Everyone tends to see the same things, read the same newspapers and get the same data feeds. The only way to arrive at a different answer from everybody else is to organize the data in different ways, or bring to the analytic process things that are not typically present.”
~ Bill Miller
Video of the Week
Naval Ravikant is a very interesting person who seems to have thought deeply about several subjects related to how to live better, work better and think better. Here is a long conversation with Joe Rogan.
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