Curiosity@Intelsense
Weekly dose of learning
1.
Cyclical vs Cumulative Knowledge
Reading old finance articles makes you feel like the ancient past was no different than today – the opposite feeling you get reading old medical commentary.
In some fields our knowledge is seamlessly passed down across generations. In others, it’s fleeting. To paraphrase investor Jim Grant: Knowledge in some fields is cumulative. In other fields it’s cyclical (at best).
Some fields have quantifiable truths, while others are guided by vague beliefs and individual circumstances. Physicist Richard Feynman said, “Imagine how much harder physics would be if electrons had feelings.” Well, people do. So any topic guided by behavior – money, philosophy, relationships, etc. – can’t be solved with a formula like physics and math.
Cyclical knowledge, and the inability to fully learn from others’ past experiences, means you have to accept a level of volatility and fragility not found in other fields. I can imagine a world in 50 years where things like cancer and heart disease are either non-existent or effectively controlled. I cannot ever imagine a world where economic volatility is tamed and people stop making financial decisions they eventually regret – no matter how much history of past mistakes we have to study.
2.
Reflexivity in the markets
Popularized by George Soros, reflexivity posits that our perceptions do not just reflect the world around us but shape it. He argues that financial markets are not merely passive mirrors of reality but are instead shaped by the perceptions and beliefs of the participants. This creates a feedback loop where initial beliefs influence actions that change outcomes, thus reinforcing or altering the original beliefs.
Belief is not just a passive reflection of inner thoughts but a powerful force that actively shapes reality. When we believe in something fervently, our actions and behaviors align with that belief, influencing those around us and creating a ripple effect that transforms our environment. Collective perception and shared beliefs can drive cultural shifts, economic booms, and societal changes. The world is not just a mirror reflecting our thoughts; it is a canvas painted by our beliefs.
Pic of the Week
Thought of the Week
“The graveyards are full of indispensable men.” - Charles de Gaulle
“All of our miseries are nothing but attachment.” - Osho
Video of the Week
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